Three major Canadian banks provided cautiously optimistic economic outlooks on Thursday, in stark contrast to the anxiety and frustration expressed by numerous small businesses grappling with the impact of a full-fledged trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results prior to the opening bell on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Collectively, these banking giants hold approximately $6 trillion in assets on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios encompassing mortgages, auto loans, and other debt products, along with client networks spanning Canada and the U.S., these financial institutions have a unique perspective to assess the effects of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay stated during the bank’s quarterly conference call that the Canadian economy has demonstrated resilience, with improvements in employment and GDP in Q2 maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook for continued expansion. He also highlighted that the average effective tariff rate remains low at around six percent, with over 80 percent of exports remaining duty-free.
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” for investment in Canada, driven by government spending in infrastructure and national defense. TD Economics reported that both the federal government and provinces have over $1 trillion in approved or proposed projects until 2035 and beyond, indicating robust investment opportunities in the country.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed “measured confidence” regarding the latter half of 2026, emphasizing that the trade environment is evolving, and they are actively monitoring Canada’s labor market for any signs of weakness. BMO Capital Markets projected that the latest U.S. tariffs could shave roughly half a percentage point off Canadian growth, primarily through diminished business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira commended Canada’s economy for its resilience and highlighted the government’s large-scale investment initiatives and aid measures for those affected by U.S. tariffs. He specifically mentioned positive developments in energy, power infrastructure, and the recent icebreaker ship contract announcement in Quebec.
The CEOs of Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank separately indicated earlier that they view the Canada-U.S. trade war as manageable. Despite the economic challenges posed by tariffs, shares of Canada’s major banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade near record highs, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging nearly 50 percent in the past year.