Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, even though this has not yet escalated to direct military confrontation. This belief allows the Kremlin to allocate resources to carry out probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying weaknesses and boundaries. In a covert parallel campaign in Europe, Russia has been linked to acts of sabotage such as disrupting Polish railway lines, targeting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching an aggressive campaign to disrupt NATO supply chains supporting Ukraine.
The primary goals of Russia’s actions are to raise the costs for NATO’s support to Ukraine, disrupt supply chains, and sow discord in Western nations. While these attacks have not crossed a threshold that would trigger a NATO military response, Russia’s use of third-party proxies makes it challenging to attribute these actions directly to the Kremlin. Despite the lack of sophisticated coordination across Europe, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which provide significant aid to Ukraine, have been targeted more intensely compared to the UK, despite the UK’s substantial support to Ukraine.
Although the UK has faced fewer physical attacks, it does not indicate a lack of interest from Russian intelligence services, who continue to monitor and gather information on the UK, as highlighted by Defence Secretary John Healey. Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered disruptions in 2022, leading to a reliance on local proxies, diminishing the coordination and effectiveness of attacks. However, Russia is expected to adapt and improve its tactics, posing a risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.