A recent peer-reviewed study highlights heavy rainfall as a significant threat to cocoa production, often overlooked compared to heat and drought. The study, led by Anna Lea Albright from Harvard University, reveals that extreme rainfall poses the strongest weather risk to cocoa cultivation.
In recent years, cocoa prices have surged, with current prices averaging around $6,000 US per tonne, up from the typical range of $2,000 to $3,000 US since 2014. Factors like heavy flooding in West Africa have contributed to price spikes, impacting over two million cocoa farmers in the region.
According to Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, excessive rainfall has posed challenges for farmers this year, hindering harvesting activities. The study, focusing on Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, emphasizes that extreme rainfall during flowering stages significantly reduces yields due to damage to delicate cocoa tree flowers and pods.
The research also highlights the correlation between warmer air, increased rainfall intensity, and higher chances of fungal infections like black pod disease. Although El Niño can reduce extreme rain risks in West Africa, it raises concerns about drought conditions.
Apart from climatic risks, the study identifies non-climactic threats such as aging trees and illegal mining as additional challenges to cocoa production. While the study offers potential interventions like fungicide use and improved drainage systems to mitigate fungal diseases, infrastructure investments and post-harvest improvements are crucial for sustainable cocoa farming practices.
Experts warn that climate shocks are making cocoa farming less appealing in West Africa, potentially leading to a decline in smallholder farmers. The rising prices and challenges posed by climate change may drive chocolate producers towards cocoa-free alternatives, like sunflower seed-based chocolates, as a more sustainable and resilient option.
The study underscores the need for proactive measures to address climate-related risks in cocoa production, emphasizing the importance of sustainable practices to safeguard the future of the cocoa industry and the livelihoods of farmers.