Sweden could be in for an extended period without a new government, as initial election results released on Monday indicate a narrow and still-ambiguous lead for the left-leaning opposition, while a far-right party opposed to immigration saw a decline in support.
With almost 95 percent of districts reporting, the Swedish Election Authority announced that the four opposition parties were poised to secure 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, Sweden’s parliament, while the four parties that either form or back the current conservative government appeared to be receiving 173 seats.
However, the final outcome may remain uncertain until Wednesday when early votes, including those from overseas that did not arrive in time for Election Day, are tallied.
It could take significantly longer to determine who will govern NATO’s newest member for the next four years. Sweden, with a population of approximately 10.6 million, is also part of the European Union.
Former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, aligned with the center-left, were expected to be the largest party despite a drop in support, as she aims to reclaim her position lost in 2022. Nonetheless, if the left-leaning factions achieve a majority, she will face the challenging task of forming a government due to existing tensions within that coalition.
Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democrats and Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc, is seen at a polling station in Nacka, near Stockholm, on Sunday. (Denis Balibouse/Reuters)
Current Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that “if all the red lines stay intact, then Sweden will not have a government at all,” as reported by public broadcaster SVT. He also mentioned his intention to “explore several potential options that may be available.”
Mikael Damberg, a leading figure within the Social Democrats, remarked that “all parties will need to engage in give-and-take, and we are prepared to do that as well,” according to Swedish news agency TT.
Kristersson has been in charge of Sweden since 2022 with a coalition of three center-right parties. This coalition relied on the external backing of the Sweden Democrats, a party with anti-immigration views that has its roots in far-right ideologies but has gradually moved towards mainstream politics to secure a parliamentary majority.
Kristersson had indicated the possibility of offering Cabinet positions to the Sweden Democrats if his governing coalition emerged victorious.
Nonetheless, their performance did not meet expectations: early results indicated their support dropped to just below 18 percent, a decline of roughly three percentage points compared to four years ago, placing them behind Kristersson’s Moderates in third place.
Ann-Cathrine Jungar, a political science professor at Södertörn University, commented, “In Sweden, there has been a tradition of relatively quick government formations. However, over the past decade, these have become increasingly complex, and this year will be no exception.”
Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderate Party and the ruling centre-right bloc, is seen in Strangnas, Sweden, on Sunday. (Denis Balibouse/Reuters)
Part of this complexity arises from the Center Party’s alignment with the left, as they are unwilling to govern alongside the Sweden Democrats but also prefer not to partner with the Left Party, which sits at the opposite end of the political spectrum.
This presents a potential challenge for Andersson, whose Social Democrats are projected to achieve a lackluster result of around 28 percent of the vote. Any attempts to form coalitions across the traditional right-left divide would also be fraught with difficulty.
Given the widespread political consensus in Sweden on key issues such as support for Ukraine and the decision to join NATO, much of the election discourse revolved around the potential for the hard-right to enter the government. The Sweden Democrats’ role was scrutinized within the context of a rise in populist right movements across Europe.
The Sweden Democrats were established in the 1980s by individuals involved in far-right extremist groups, including neo-Nazis. Under the leadership of Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, they have moderated their stance and expelled openly racist members, resulting in significant growth from their previous status as a marginal party.
Voters line up outside a polling station in Landskrona, Sweden, on Sunday. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency/The Associated Press)
Jungar pointed out that when right-wing populist parties either enter or support governments, “they often experience a decline in votes … as voters become disillusioned if their entire agenda isn’t implemented.”
She further noted that these parties possess a stable electoral base with nationwide support, and “their electoral performance will fluctuate — which is part of the normalization process for these populist radical right parties in Sweden and beyond.”
According to Jungar, Sweden’s multiparty system is designed for compromise, and governments typically collaborate with the opposition to ensure continuity on significant socio-economic matters.
One thing is certain, she emphasized: regardless of who ultimately forms the government, “there are unlikely to be any significant shifts towards more liberal migration policies,” given that populist right-wing parties have influenced stricter policies throughout the Nordic region over the last twenty years.