Keir Starmer is returning from his trip to the Far East this weekend, having successfully negotiated key concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, No10 is relieved that the Beijing visit proceeded smoothly without major issues. Now, the focus shifts to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation.
Scheduled for February 26, the by-election in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will determine the new MP. The recent decision by Labour’s governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster is viewed as a risky move by some MPs, who express concerns about potential repercussions.
While there are mixed sentiments among MPs, there is optimism that victory is attainable. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s judicial reforms, has expressed confidence based on discussions with deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell about the ground situation.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlights the uncertainties surrounding the by-election, emphasizing the roles of Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. With shifting dynamics in the constituency, the outcome remains unpredictable.
Fellow polling expert Luke Tryl suggests the by-election is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, influenced by the polarizing figure of Nigel Farage. Tactical voting could play a crucial role in determining the winner, with voters contemplating how to prevent Reform from gaining ground.
The strategic choices of voters, especially those leaning towards left-leaning parties, will shape the outcome of the by-election. The intense competition and tactical considerations create a challenging environment for all parties involved.