A recent examination has revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to revamp its coal-fired power plants may incur expenses of up to $46.4 billion in the next two decades. This amount surpasses the previously disclosed estimate of $26 billion over 25 years from leaked internal SaskPower documents. Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to determine the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s strategy to utilize coal-fired plants as a transitional phase to nuclear power and the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
According to Dolter’s findings, retaining the coal plants and introducing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems will be costlier and more environmentally harmful than decommissioning the coal plants. This alternative approach was initially proposed by the province before its policy reversal in early 2025. Dolter emphasized the potential benefits of a scenario that not only saves money and reduces emissions but also saves individuals an average of over $800 annually.
The analysis drew upon leaked SaskPower documents, submissions to the province’s rate review panel, and some assumptions due to the lack of transparency regarding the government’s internal analysis. Dolter highlighted that factoring in carbon pricing significantly enhances the apparent cost savings. Without carbon pricing for heavy emitters, the projected cost of persisting with coal-fired power amounts to $30.2 billion over the next two decades.
When considering carbon pricing, the overall cost projection elevates to $46.4 billion, a figure derived from Ottawa’s carbon pricing agreement with Alberta earlier this year. Dolter emphasized the substantial financial advantages of integrating carbon pricing, making the transition significantly more cost-effective due to the substantial pollution associated with coal plants.
Although the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s current trajectory are evident, Dolter refrained from speculating on the government’s rationale behind its decision-making process. The provincial government declined to directly address Dolter’s analysis when approached by CBC News, instead reiterating its commitment to ensuring reliable and affordable electricity to support Saskatchewan’s ongoing growth.
Furthermore, the decision to refurbish Saskatchewan’s coal-fired plants, made in early 2025 by Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison, was underpinned by the potential job losses that would have ensued if the province had adhered to its previous clean energy plan. Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan expressed relief at the government’s decision, noting that the city was prepared for a significant population decline had the coal plants been phased out.
As Saskatchewan navigates its energy transition, there are mounting financial and legal risks associated with deviating from federal regulations aimed at phasing out coal-fired power. Harrison’s assertion that the federal regulations are unconstitutional raises concerns about the province’s compliance and potential legal ramifications. Dolter warned that flouting these regulations could expose Saskatchewan to legal challenges, potentially resulting in significant financial losses if the coal plants are ultimately required to be shut down.